Weekly Economic Update – 06/16/2025

The Week on Wall Street

Stocks fell last week as an up-and-down mix of trade progress and anxiety, economic news, and geopolitical tensions netted out.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.39 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.63 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.32 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, edged down 0.18 percent.1,2

Trade, Geopolitics Dominate Sessions

Stocks largely languished for the first half of the week as investors awaited news from U.S.-China trade talks and key inflation reports.3,4

Sentiment began to rise late Tuesday afternoon following upbeat comments about trade talks. Most of the market gains came before the U.S. and China separately announced the trade update, with little reaction when markets opened the next day.4

Stocks peaked midweek, then declined despite a May report showing consumer inflation rose less than expected. Markets then trended a bit higher after a better-than-expected wholesale inflation report.5

Beginning Friday morning, all three averages were under pressure all day following news of an escalated conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices pushed higher on Friday on supply concerns.6

Brighter Notes

As the week ended with rising tensions in the Middle East, it was easy to overlook some good economic news.

First is inflation: both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed signs of cooling or holding steady. And both the CPI and PPI slightly beat expectations.

Second, consumers. Consumer sentiment jumped in May—the first such rise in six months. Economists took note, as consumer spending drives two-thirds of the U.S. economy.7

Weekly Riddle

There are two of them; one can usually see what the other sees, but they can never see each other. What are they?

Last Week’s Riddle: Three playing cards lie face down on a table. A jack is to the left of a queen. To the left of a spade is a diamond. A king is left of a heart. A spade is right of a king. What are the three cards?

Answer: King of diamonds, jack of hearts, queen of spades.

John Dombroski Jr. may be reached at (480) 991-1055 or [email protected]
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