Weekly Economic Update 04/23/2018

CONSUMERS BOUGHT MORE IN MARCH

According to a report from the Department of Commerce, retail sales jumped 0.6% last month. That was the biggest monthly gain recorded since November (and the first monthly advance of 2018). Sales of cars and trucks were up 2.0%, making March the best month for that category since September.1

CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY INCREASES

New Census Bureau data shows housing starts improved 1.9% in March; also, building permits rose 2.5%. In February, permits fell 4.1% and starts declined 3.3%.2

INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 0.5%

This March gain reported by the Federal Reserve followed a (revised) 1.0% advance for February. Industrial production was up 4.3% year-over-year through March.2

GAINS ON WALL STREET

All three key U.S. equity indices advanced last week: the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.56%; the S&P 500, 0.52%; the Dow Industrials, 0.42%. Friday’s settlements: Nasdaq, 7146.13; S&P, 2,670.14; Dow, 24,462.94. The yield on the 10-year note hit 2.96% Friday, a high unmatched since January 2014.3,4

THIS WEEK:

  • Alaska Air, Alphabet, Ameriprise Financial, Halliburton, Hasbro, Kimberly-Clark, TD Ameritrade, and Whirlpool announce earnings on Monday, when investors will also eye the latest existing home sales numbers.
  • March new home sales figures and a new Conference Board consumer confidence index are out Tuesday, plus earnings news from 3M, Biogen, Capital One, Caterpillar, Chubb, Coca-Cola, Corning, Eli Lilly, Fifth Third, Freeport-McMoRan, JetBlue, Lockheed Martin, NextEra Energy, Pulte Group, Ryder, Texas Instruments, Travelers, and Verizon.
  • On Wednesday, Aflac, Anthem, AT&T, Boeing, Chipotle, Comcast, eBay, Facebook, Ford Motor Co., Goodyear, Ingersoll-Rand, Kaiser Aluminum, Norfolk Southern, Northrop Grumman, Owens Corning, PayPal, Peabody Energy, Penske, Public Storage, Qualcomm, Raymond James, Rockwell Automation, Twitter, Universal Health Services, Viacom, Visa, and W.R. Grace report results.
  • Thursday, earnings emerge from Ally, Altria, Amazon, Amgen, Bristol-Myers, ConocoPhillips, D.R. Horton, Discover, Domino’s, Dunkin’ Brands, Expedia, Fiat Chrysler, General Motors, Hilton Worldwide, Intel, MGM Resorts, Microsoft, Nokia, PepsiCo, Raytheon, Royal Dutch Shell, SkyWest, Southwest Airlines, Spirit Airlines, Starbucks, Time Warner, Union Pacific, and Western Digital.
  • Friday, earnings from Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, ExxonMobil, Honda, Philips 66, Spectrum, and Weyerhaeuser coincide with the University of Michigan’s final April consumer sentiment index and the first estimate of Q1 GDP.
% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA -1.04 +18.87 +13.63 +9.07
NASDAQ +3.52 +20.78 +24.58 +19.68
S&P 500 -0.13 +13.34 +14.34 +9.23
REAL YIELD 4/20 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS 0.79% 0.39% -0.59% 1.44%

Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 4/20/183,5,6,7
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.


WEEKLY TIP

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Citations.
1 – tinyurl.com/y6u52yj4
2 – investing.com/economic-calendar/
3 – markets.wsj.com/us
4 – marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-continue-to-sell-off-as-10-year-yield-hits-more-than-four-year-high-2018-04-20
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F20%2F17&x=0&y=0
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F20%2F17&x=0&y=0
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F20%2F17&x=0&y=0
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F19%2F13&x=0&y=0
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F19%2F13&x=0&y=0
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F19%2F13&x=0&y=0
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F21%2F08&x=0&y=0
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F21%2F08&x=0&y=0
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F21%2F08&x=0&y=0
6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll